Too bad that the Dick Smith price expired. This brain child of George H. Miley seem almost custom designed to pass the Dick Smith test with flying colors. He is entering the commercial LENR field with a bold vision for a LENR reactor, as has been reported at the various LENR sites (e.g. here were I stole above schematics).
So is this finally a serious contender, or just the latest attempt to get some investor money before the LENR believer bubble deflates?
Update: This overview of the field by Ed Storms presents what he obviously regards as the best LENR work.
Where there is lots of smoke, there isn’t necessarily a “new fire” (the latter a term Rossi emphatically embraced). The failure of the (supposedly) commercial players to meet a single self-imposed deadline is certainly not helping the field, especially since many of it top proponents haven’t shied away from embracing Rossi.
So where does this leave this (still mostly ignored) fringe science? Any news that mainstream physics’ certainties are less well established than previously believed, e.g. such as the size of the proton, may give LENR enthusiasts hope. They may also take heart in the fact that an US Air Force report on Advanced Launch Concepts mentions LENR. But in the end all this matters little if unusual LENR effects cannot be rigorously established through repeatable experiments.
To me one of the best aspects of ECN was detailed discussions of LENR papers in the comment sections. My own limited experimental experiences consist of twenty year old mandatory lab time while pursuing my physics degree, and so it was very instructive to hear from commenters who apparently have quite a bit more experience in this regard. So I invite anybody who still holds out on LENR to submit what experiments and papers they found most convincing. My favorites are still Iwamura’s efforts, but I am aware that his papers are rather flawed as they don’t seem to properly account for the null hypothesis.
As to all the papers describing a heat effect, what I would really like to see is a comparison with the theoretical entropic heat that you’d expect if there was no abnormal effect. Given todays computing powers, numerical simulations (e.g. this thesis paper for hydrogen gas loading) are not cost prohibitive and would go a long way to establish a proper baseline.
If there was a LENR paper out there, that goes this extra mile I’d be happy to learn about it.
Ecantnews regular, Frank, brought this to our attention:
The Dick Smith prize has expired yesterday, and nobody (Rossi, Defkalion, Celani, MFMP, Swartz, no one of Rossi’s secret clients …) has claimed the 1 Million.
Another regular poster, i.e. DSM, set up Dick’s site and expressed at one point that he had high hopes that somebody would have come forward, but in the end Dick can keep his money and prove a point.
As the ecatnews.com site has been left abandoned, it looks like this site will have to step up as a temporary home for the ragtag ecatnews community that keeps enjoying each others company.
This is a stock WordPress.com blog. As such it does not allow for the kind of customizations of the comment system that this community was accustomed to. I.e. here you have to get you comments right the first time, there’s no interface that allows for editing of comments, and since I don’t host the blog myself, I cannot change this.
Hence, if the lively ecatnews discussions will in fact migrate over here, I think this site will be only a stop-gap measure until I find the time to create something better. I.e. to get the comment editing functionality back and maybe also a customization that displays a user’s IP number – to alleviate concerns that the same person may impersonate several different users.
But getting back to the subject at hand: It seems that most posters have thoroughly soured on Rossi and Defkalion, but how is the believe in the reality of a genuine LENR effect holding up? Maybe another micro poll is in order?
(Oh, and didn’t the general promise another tale?)
Only 67 counts this time. Mostly due to massively less participation in the anglo-saxon world (lost just shy of 30 votes – NZ dropped off the map and there was only one UK vote versus 10 in the previous survey). This makes the poll demographic slightly less centered on the Western 1st world than before. There are also some new nations in the mix i.e. Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia (although one previous vote from China also went missing).
If you wonder where this data comes from as I did not ask participants about their nationality: This is based on IP identification and an automatic feature of polldaddy.com. I only learned about it after the first survey was completed. So, to make up an example, if some random Dick Smith from Australia was travelling in Europe, but still partook in the poll, than this shows up as a vote from the country that he resided in at the time.
Although the smaller turn-out can have numerous reasons, I suppose it is due to decreasing interest in the Rossi/Defkalion story in the areas of the world where the story broke first and subsequently less traffic on the e-cat forums where I advertised the poll (mostly ecatnews.com, but also as a first to a limited extend on nickelpower.org). If any of the site admins want to comment on the traffic trends that they see, I think that’ll be illuminating.
Enough with the tea leaf reading here are the raw count results of the last poll:
Overall consistency is pretty good i.e. the Hyperion can only be truly LENR if Defkalion has the know‑how and if one expects results in 3 months then logically they will also be out within the larger time window.
Despite the bad press fall-out from closing their online forum, Defkalion has still a plurality of the votes in favor of them having LENR skills. But this does not fully translate into believe that the Hyperion is actually a LENR device. The claimed very short development time for the Hyperion probably takes its toll there.
The believe into Defkalion erodes further when it comes to sharing their test results. Only 5 voters (less than 7.5%) are certain to see test results within 3 months. Giving Defkalion three months more time raises this number only fractionally and is balanced equally by the number of hard-core doubters who never expect to see any test results.
When asked to make a black or white call a small majority (55%) votes in favor of Defkalion’s ability to bring a product to the market.
Only members of this group where then asked to render another absolute judgment. The question if Defkalion developed their Hyperion independently of Rossi, is a measure for uncompromising trust placed into the company, as this is what they claim.
Even within the “believer” segment only a small group (slightly larger than those expecting test results within 6 months) believe Defkalion’s claim without reservations.
Knowing how rambunctious the debate at ecatnews.com can become, I humbly submit to not use the knowledge that these true believers are in the minority, as a means to marginalize them even further. It takes a somewhat cynical outlook to recognize as well as assume fraudulent behaviour. Those who believe without reservation typically do so because they entirely lack the capacity to any such deception, and find it inconceivable that others don’t.
On a somewhat related but personal note: Although I made age non-mandatory I received one very puzzling entry. It read: “100 (Sorry)“.
It seems very hard for me to believe that we have a 100 year old, Internet savy individual participating – but then again the world is a large and wondrous place. If this wasn’t some compulsive joke or misunderstanding, then please leave a comment.
Leave comments here on the Defkalion survey results.
This survey was open between Monday, Feb 27th and Friday, Mar 2nd and only advertised on the ectanews.com forum. From there 107 visitors responded. Many thanks to everyone who did. This is a pretty good sample size. So without further ado here are the raw count results:
Even of those who believe in the e-cat only one individual thinks Rossi can deliver on time. And although this individual is based in Europe given his posting location he does not believe in Rossi out of misplaced patriotism (i.e. the one 100% vote for the first statement did not originate in Italy).
Statement two is essentially a negation of the first one, and the good symmetry of the results indicates that people showed consistency in their judgment when filling out the survey.
The numbers for statement three are essentially a reflection on how the survey takers gauge Rossi’s truthfulness. While the scale is tipped in favor of skepticism this is still essentially a pretty even picture.
Interestingly this skepticism doesn’t carry over to how the majority assesses the likelihood of the e-cat showing a LENR effect. In this sense the data represents those voices in the forum that support LENR but are highly critical of Rossi.
The numbers for the last question are to some extend at odds with the previous one as a handful of people apparently believe in an LENR effect in the e-cat, yet still consider there to be no excess energy. This overlap is pretty small though.
The demographics of the sample group is pretty interesting, too. When it comes to e-cat interest it’s a men’s world:
Makes me wonder if the rambunctious tone in the ecatnews.com forum drives women away or simply is a consequence of the lopsided gender mix.
The interest is spread around the globe but clearly is a 1st world obsession:
This is a pretty old group even when throwing out the data points of the two self reported super-geezers who claimed to be 99 and 100 (sorry guys but I am not buying it :-))